NFL Overreactions

NFL Overreation

Contributor: John Dudley

Week 1 is in the book. That means it is time for collectors to panic and overreact. Let’s check in with the market and evaluate if collectors are underreacting, overreacting, or if they’ve got things figured out. Below is a list of players that either had big games or should have stayed home.

The Bad

Aaron Rodgers- The worst news from the opening week has to be the loss of Rodgers for the year. I’m too sad for them to even taunt the Jets fans. Rodgers is a veteran surefire HOF quarterback and collectors are treating him like one. His PSA 9 Topps RC was going for about $75 before the injury and is holding strong at the same price.

Verdict: Proper reaction, Collectors are being rational.

Justin Fields- Blech. Fields delivered what one should expect from a Bears quarterback, not much. His PSA 10 Prizm dipped to an average of $50 down from only $55. The fact he wasn’t priced that high to begin with shows that collectors are more interested in real football than fantasy. 

Verdict: Underreaction. I’ll argue the dip should be greater.

Joe Burrow- Burrow was bad, awful, abysmal and he probably smelled horrible too. Burrow’s PSA 10 Prizm RC dropped from an average of $200 to $150 right after the game. That seems excessive and collectors agreed as the card has rebounded to $175. Burrow’s cards highlight the buying opportunities that exist in a short window right after a bad game.

Verdict: Initial overreaction that was quickly corrected.

The Good

Brandon Aiyuk- As bad as Burrow was, Aiyuk was awesome. The fourth-year receiver had a strong 2022 and is looking to move into the upper echelon of wide receivers. Hobbyists aren’t buying it though as Aiyuk Prizm rookies are still trading for under $5 and a Silver Prizm sold for a mere $15. I’m intrigued by Aiyuk’s potential this year, but I think collectors have this right as only the very top receivers ever get hobby attention. It will take a big effort for Aiyuk to get noticed.

Verdict: Proper reaction. I was expecting a few questionable high sales, but folks got this right IMO. 

Baker Mayfield- Mayfield looked solid in leading the Bucs to victory. His PSA 10 Prizm RC went up to $30 from $20, but the card was selling for $40-$50 in the offseason. Baker’s success was helped by his knowing the Vikings play calls though so maybe we shouldn’t be optimistic.

Verdict: Slight overreaction. 

Tua Tagovailoa- Tua can play. He looked like a definite top-five quarterback in Week 1, but the question will always be can he play a full season. His PSA 10 Prizm RC is holding at $80 despite the great game. 

Verdict: Collectors avoid overreaction again!

Christian McCaffrey- McCaffrey had a monster game and here we finally see some real movement. His PSA 10 Prizm RC went from $80-$100 to $125-$150. That’s a big jump, especially for a running back with injury concerns. McCaffrey will need to put up major numbers or bring San Francisco deep into the playoffs to justify the increase. 

Verdict: Slight overreaction, but I’m not betting against him or the Niners.

Brock Purdy- He looked great and in full command of the offense. His raw Prizm RC is going for $30 up from $15-$20. More importantly, they are moving fast and in large numbers at that price. Purdy has made true believers out of a ton of collectors and looks poised to be one of the biggest forces in the hobby.

Verdict: Just right. 

Wrap Up

Shockingly, there are very few massive overreactions. Often football cards see wild swings week to week, but collectors seem to be timid after the beating the market has taken. Alternatively, the collectorate has gotten more sophisticated. As an aside, the fact I highlighted three Niners means I should probably jump on their Super Bowl bandwagon. Also, if you haven’t checked out the insanely useful Card Shop Live app, what are you waiting for? It’s great for breaks, personal rips, singles, and hobby info. The breakers are all heavily vetted so no shenanigans here.

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